It is normal for the average trader to feel a sense of foreboding around a lifetime high level. Add the sizable loss in market capitalization of digital currencies (cryptocurrencie ... Read more
It is normal for the average trader to feel a sense of foreboding around a lifetime high level. Add the sizable loss in market capitalization of digital currencies (cryptocurrencies), and you have a breeding ground for doubt, nervousness and caution. Issues like a missile falling in Poland, Chinese lockdowns and sabre rattling by North Korea and Taiwan added fuel to the fire of nervousness. Read more
A careful analysis of the statistical data of the markets last week tells me the surprise up move caught most retail traders sleeping behind the wheel. Markets opened with a bullis ... Read more
A careful analysis of the statistical data of the markets last week tells me the surprise up move caught most retail traders sleeping behind the wheel. Markets opened with a bullish gap on Friday, and not many retail bulls could sink their teeth into fresh long positions. This can trigger FOMO (fear of missing out) -based buying this week. Read more
The factor I was keenly watching was the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. I advocated last week that the markets had priced in a 50 bps (0.50%) rate hike. Any hike of 7 ... Read more
The factor I was keenly watching was the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. I advocated last week that the markets had priced in a 50 bps (0.50%) rate hike. Any hike of 75 bps or higher would negatively impact the US indices. That played out along expected lines as US indices lost ground on a week-on-week basis. Read more
Markets are showing statistical signs of inching higher. Bulls are offering support on declines. Barring unforeseen circumstances, this is likely to continue in the near future. Th ... Read more
Markets are showing statistical signs of inching higher. Bulls are offering support on declines. Barring unforeseen circumstances, this is likely to continue in the near future. The risk-on sentiment (when risk appetite rises for riskier assets) gained momentum last week. Read more
The latter half of the week saw bulls showing signs of attempting a comeback. It started with short covering lifting values higher. While part of the reason short covering occurred ... Read more
The latter half of the week saw bulls showing signs of attempting a comeback. It started with short covering lifting values higher. While part of the reason short covering occurred was due to the impending October expiry. Compared to long positions, fewer short positions get rolled over. However, the fact remains that short covering indicates bears are backing off, even if temporarily. Finally, last Thursday saw bulls showing some aggression. That raises the probability of some more upside in the market. Read more
A lot happened on the geopolitical front last week. Hostilities have escalated in Ukraine, and the Russian army has reportedly moved nuclear assets closer to the Ukrainian border. ... Read more
A lot happened on the geopolitical front last week. Hostilities have escalated in Ukraine, and the Russian army has reportedly moved nuclear assets closer to the Ukrainian border. Chinese president Xi Xinping has staked claim to a third term and announced continued territorial claims on Taiwan. This announcement is likely to ruffle feathers in international markets. Read more
Things that should have made a discerning trader sit up in his chair last week were OPEC cutting oil output by a whopping 2 million barrels per day. The rupee slid to a new lifetim ... Read more
Things that should have made a discerning trader sit up in his chair last week were OPEC cutting oil output by a whopping 2 million barrels per day. The rupee slid to a new lifetime low versus the dollar. And the Indian benchmark bond yields hit their highest level in almost four months to close the week at 7.51%. Read more
Now that the rate hike issue is done and dusted, the question that haunts every trader’s mind is – has a hard bottom been put in place? Or is it just a technical rebound? We seek a ... Read more
Now that the rate hike issue is done and dusted, the question that haunts every trader’s mind is – has a hard bottom been put in place? Or is it just a technical rebound? We seek answers in statistical data to clear the fog. Read more
September is historically a challenging month for traders, as empirical evidence indicates from the turn of the century. Statistical ßeta (pure price volatility) was screaming a wa ... Read more
September is historically a challenging month for traders, as empirical evidence indicates from the turn of the century. Statistical ßeta (pure price volatility) was screaming a warning, and I warned my readers that a period of high volatility was around the corner. Prices can turn on a dime, raising challenge levels for an average trader. Read more
Markets are in what is known as a VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) phase in hedge fund parlance. Price swings get bigger, and bid and offer spreads (price d ... Read more
Markets are in what is known as a VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) phase in hedge fund parlance. Price swings get bigger, and bid and offer spreads (price difference between buyers’ and sellers’ price limits) get wider. Intraday price ranges expand sharply. That can catch an average retail trader on the wrong foot. Read more
