Weak oil prices cast doubts on global economic recovery expectations. In the last episode, we pointed out our concern over a simultaneous rally in equities and bullion. Instead, we ... Read more
Weak oil prices cast doubts on global economic recovery expectations. In the last episode, we pointed out our concern over a simultaneous rally in equities and bullion. Instead, we saw a fall in unison in equities and bullion. This is off the beaten track and points towards a future divergence between equities and bullion. We need to wait and watch which way the cookie crumbles. Tune in to know more! Read more
It appears smart money may be betting on an up move in financial assets, but it is also hedging its bets by parking money in bullion. It also warns us that inflation may be stickie ... Read more
It appears smart money may be betting on an up move in financial assets, but it is also hedging its bets by parking money in bullion. It also warns us that inflation may be stickier than expected earlier, and purchasing power of fiat currencies will likely erode faster. The erosion in the dollar index over the last six months is an example. Tune in to know more! Read more
The RBI governor announced a pause, not a halt, on interest rate hikes. And Bulls think the pause in interest rates will halt the party for the fixed-income investors and/or stem t ... Read more
The RBI governor announced a pause, not a halt, on interest rate hikes. And Bulls think the pause in interest rates will halt the party for the fixed-income investors and/or stem the flight of capital from equities to fixed income, but they are mistaken. When interest rates approach a peak or begin to slide downhill, Gilt funds find favour with knowledgeable investors. Tune in to know more! Read more
The ongoing banking crisis is likely to spread further as I compared it to dominoes falling in a bowling alley. The Dutch Central Bank declared losses for the first time since 1931 ... Read more
The ongoing banking crisis is likely to spread further as I compared it to dominoes falling in a bowling alley. The Dutch Central Bank declared losses for the first time since 1931. What is worse, they have projected loss-making years till 2028 and indicated that the central bank might lose its entire equity capital. Deutsche Bank stock fell in Germany, and its credit default swaps (bets that the bank would fail) jumped. Savers in the US are making a beeline to withdraw their deposits from smaller banks due to falling morale. This episode discusses the same in detail. Read more
The fact that more and more banks in the West are reporting losses tells us that the sector is stressed and will demand cash infusions. In a phase when the cost of funds (interest ... Read more
The fact that more and more banks in the West are reporting losses tells us that the sector is stressed and will demand cash infusions. In a phase when the cost of funds (interest rates) is rising, it means the US Fed will focus on bailing out the big fish, whereas the small mom-and-pop businesses may struggle for liquidity. With rampant printing of unbacked currency during covid lockdowns triggering multi-decade high inflation, printing more cash is not a good option. Big money smells that dilemma and is deleveraging (cutting down on risky bets). This episode discusses the same in detail. Read more
Bulls need to push harder as the market sentiments are sagging on poor retail participation. Repeatedly warning the listeners about 2023 being a tough year for financial markets du ... Read more
Bulls need to push harder as the market sentiments are sagging on poor retail participation. Repeatedly warning the listeners about 2023 being a tough year for financial markets due to the rising cost of funds. As the rising inflation and cost of funds are the least understood and understated factors in the markets. Read more
Interest rate continue to grow higher. Bond yields remain firm and Non-banking financial companies can offer higher interest on fixed deposits. Adani Group attracted a global inves ... Read more
Interest rate continue to grow higher. Bond yields remain firm and Non-banking financial companies can offer higher interest on fixed deposits. Adani Group attracted a global investor and the Dollar index DXY fell. Energy prices threatened to rise further due to geo-political reasons. The LWTD line continue to slip for the third week in a row. Read more
The coming week is noteworthy as the RBI is expected to mop up over ₹50,000 crore in a variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) operation for 14 days. The VRRR will be reversed on 10 Marc ... Read more
The coming week is noteworthy as the RBI is expected to mop up over ₹50,000 crore in a variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) operation for 14 days. The VRRR will be reversed on 10 March, and the bidders can quote up to the repo rate of return. March is the final month of the Indian financial year. Banks routinely borrow from each other to balance their books in the inter-bank call money markets. Read more
The markets registered small gains in the broad-based Nifty-50, whereas Bank Nifty dragged sentiments lower. My readers need to delve deeper into why banking stocks are falling. Af ... Read more
The markets registered small gains in the broad-based Nifty-50, whereas Bank Nifty dragged sentiments lower. My readers need to delve deeper into why banking stocks are falling. After all, banking and financial services constitute 36.81% weightage in the Nifty-50. Read more
The budget may have provided a catalyst to the markets to trigger a re-jig in asset allocations. The finance minister expects to raise ₹15.43 trillion in FY24. Of this, ₹11.80 tril ... Read more
The budget may have provided a catalyst to the markets to trigger a re-jig in asset allocations. The finance minister expects to raise ₹15.43 trillion in FY24. Of this, ₹11.80 trillion is to be raised via dated government securities. The remaining are from small savings schemes. These include post office TDs (term deposits), MIS (monthly income scheme), RDs (recurring deposits) and SCSS (senior citizens savings scheme). Incidentally, the investment limits on these schemes were doubled in the budget and coupon (interest) rates were raised a few days prior. That makes these schemes more attractive Read more
