On Sunday night, India’s new National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government was sworn into office, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at its helm once more. We have a new group of B ... Read more
On Sunday night, India’s new National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government was sworn into office, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at its helm once more. We have a new group of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) allies, a new group of ministers, and a new look in terms of how the Modi government will function in its third term. However, the economic challenges the new government faces are quite old. Many experts believe that concerns about inflation, jobs, and lack of upward mobility dented the BJP’s electoral prospects in the recent general election. To talk about the Indian economy and the steps the new government must take, Milan is joined on the show this week by Trinh Nguyen. Trinh is a senior economist covering emerging Asia at Natixis, based in Hong Kong, where she surveys economic trends across Asia, including in India. She previously worked at HSBC as an ASEAN economist from 2011 to 2015. She is also a nonresident scholar in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Trinh and Milan discuss the market reaction to the surprise 2024 election result, the key vulnerabilities for the Indian economy, and how India is performing relative to its Asian peers. Plus, the two discuss India’s ability to leverage the “China+1” moment, the recent slump in foreign direct investment (FDI), and whether a coalition government spells doom for reforms. Read more
We’ve finally come to the end of the 46-day Indian general election. And we have a surprising result which many experts did not see coming. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prim ... Read more
We’ve finally come to the end of the 46-day Indian general election. And we have a surprising result which many experts did not see coming. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi failed to secure a single-party majority in the Lok Sabha in what is being interpreted as a major setback. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) did, however, win a majority and is set to form a new government on June 8th under Modi’s leadership. The opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) grouping, in turn, performed much better than expected, winning 233 seats—a massive increase from 2019. On today’s podcast, we bring you a conversation that Milan recorded with two of India’s leading political experts: Sunetra Choudhury, national political editor of the Hindustan Times, and Rahul Verma, Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. The trio spend an hour digging into the nitty gritty of these election results. They discuss the BJP’s stumbles, the INDIA alliance’s keys to success, and what the election tells us about national issues like the economy and Hindu nationalism. Plus, the three discuss what the we can expect from the new NDA government. If you’re interested in the video of the conversation, you can find it on YouTube here: https://www.youtube.com/live/JfhZEAclHv4 Read more
Over the last five years, Milan has interviewed authors of big books, that have brought innovative new ideas to the India policy debate. And he’s also interviewed authors of lengt ... Read more
Over the last five years, Milan has interviewed authors of big books, that have brought innovative new ideas to the India policy debate. And he’s also interviewed authors of lengthy books. On the show this week, he sits down with an author who’s written a big book in every sense of the term. It is no stretch to say that Accelerating India’s Development: A State-Led Roadmap for Effective Governance is one of the most important books written about the political economy of India’s development. Over 600 pages and 200 pages of notes, it takes readers on an exhaustive deep dive of India’s governance challenges, especially in delivering essential public services. The book draws on a wealth of research and practical insights to offer actionable, evidence-based strategies for reforms. The author of this new book is the economist Karthik Muralidharan. Karthik is the Tata Chancellor’s Professor of Economics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the most prolific economists of his generation and his works spans public finance and development economics, with a focus on education, health, welfare, and public service delivery. Milan and Karthik discuss the book’s origin story, Karthik’s framework for thinking about state capacity, and how to change the incentives of politicians and bureaucrats. Plus, the two discuss some of the book’s big ideas, ranging from data collection to public sector contracting and cash transfers. Read more
Breaking the Mould: India’s Untraveled Path to Prosperity is a big new book by the economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba. The book is both a critique of India’s development mod ... Read more
Breaking the Mould: India’s Untraveled Path to Prosperity is a big new book by the economists Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba. The book is both a critique of India’s development model as well as a manifesto for reform. Most notably, it challenges the conventional wisdom that India’s primary goal should be to transform the country into a blue-collar manufacturing powerhouse. Rajan and Lamba argue that India cannot duplicate China’s development model, but it has the opportunity to leapfrog by focusing higher up the value chain. To discuss the book’s ideas and its policy implications, Milan is joined on the show this week by Rohit Lamba. Rohit is an economist at New York University-Abu Dhabi and will soon be joining the Economics Department at Cornell University. He’s twice worked in the chief economic advisor’s office in the Indian Ministry of Finance. The two discuss what the critics get right about the Indian economy, why India cannot blindly follow the Chinese model, and how India can pivot “from brawn to brain.” Plus, Rohit and Milan discuss the manufacturing versus services debate, India’s inward economic turn, and what India must do to upgrade its human capital. Read more
The third phase of India’s 44-day long polls took place this week with voting held in 94 constituencies across 12 states. Thus far, the elections have been marked by lower-than-exp ... Read more
The third phase of India’s 44-day long polls took place this week with voting held in 94 constituencies across 12 states. Thus far, the elections have been marked by lower-than-expected turnout, intensifying communal rhetoric, and a sharp debate about inequality and redistribution. Against this backdrop, the New York Times Magazine recently published an essay by the journalist Samanth Subramanian titled, “Time Is Running Out for Rahul Gandhi’s Vision for India.” The essay was based on a reporting trip in February of this year in which Samanth traveled Uttar Pradesh with Rahul Gandhi, the former president of the Congress Party who remains its most promising face. Samanth is the author of several award-winning books, This Divided Island: Life, Death and the Sri Lankan War and A Dominant Character: The Radical Science and Restless Politics of J.B.S. Haldane. He has also long reported on India and Indian politics. To talk more about his recent essay, Samanth joins Milan on the podcast this week. On the show, he and Milan discuss Rahul Gandhi’s political vision, the tensions within the Congress Party, and Gandhi’s strengths and weaknesses as a politician. Plus, the two debate the party’s fortunes, its relationship with Muslims, and the Gandhi family legacy. Read more
The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi entered this election as the clear favorite with every single pre-election survey pointing a decisive vic ... Read more
The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi entered this election as the clear favorite with every single pre-election survey pointing a decisive victory. However, the party is leaving no stone unturned in its effort to notch a third consecutive parliamentary majority. To discuss the BJP’s campaign, Milan is joined on the show this week by Smriti Kak Ramachandran, a veteran journalist who covers the BJP for the Hindustan Times. Smriti has spent over a decade in journalism combining old fashioned leg work with modern story telling tools. Milan and Smriti discuss how the BJP is responding to lower-than-expected turnout in the first phase of voting, Modi’s communally-tinged speech in Rajasthan, and the surprising omission from the BJP’s manifesto. Plus, the two discuss the states the BJP is keeping a close eye on, from Odisha in the east to Tamil Nadu in the south. Read more
As India heads to the polls, a new chapter is being written in a very old debate about poverty and inequality in India. This debate has been stirred up by the release of new data f ... Read more
As India heads to the polls, a new chapter is being written in a very old debate about poverty and inequality in India. This debate has been stirred up by the release of new data from a government-sponsored consumption survey, which some have argued shows a massive decline in poverty in India. Others believe that this data are not so unequivocal and point to a widening gap between top income-earners and ordinary Indians. To make sense of this debate, Milan is joined on the show this week by Maitreesh Ghatak. Maitreesh is a Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, where he has been the Director of the Development Economics Group at the research centre, STICERD, since 2005. He is a widely respected voice on India’s economic development and has been especially focused, in recent years, on questions of growth, poverty, and inequality. Milan and Maitreesh discuss the government’s recent consumption survey, contested claims that India has eliminated extreme poverty, and recent inequality trends. Plus, the two discuss the overall health of the macro-economy and the state of India’s statistical system. Read more
In just a few days, India’s eighteenth general elections will get underway with voting in the first phase kicking off on April 19. Between April 19 and June 1, India will have seve ... Read more
In just a few days, India’s eighteenth general elections will get underway with voting in the first phase kicking off on April 19. Between April 19 and June 1, India will have seven separate polling days culminating in a final counting of votes on June 4. Every single pre-election survey to date shows the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning a comfortable majority of seats in the Lok Sabha. If these predictions come to fruition, it would be the first time that a party has won three consecutive elections under the same leader since Congress during the Nehru period. To preview these elections—and what they mean for India’s future—Milan is joined on the show this week by Sukumar Ranganathan, editor-in-chief of the Hindustan Times. Few people in India have observed and analyzed politics, economics, and social change as comprehensively as Sukumar. Milan and Sukumar discuss the issues animating voters this election, the state of the economy, and the significant expansion of the BJP coalition. Plus, the two discuss the opposition’s struggles, the BJP’s big push in the southern states, and what we know about the agenda for Modi 3.0. Read more
On March 11, the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization conducted the maiden test of its Agni-V MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle) missile. MIR ... Read more
On March 11, the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization conducted the maiden test of its Agni-V MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle) missile. MIRV capability is a complex technology and there are only a handful of countries that have developed it. The test represents a breakthrough for India’s missile program but it’s also prompted warnings of a new arms race in the Indo-Pacific, a region already marked by sharpening geopolitical rivalries. To discuss India’s missile program, its defense posture, and its emerging space policy, Milan is joined on the show this week by Ankit Panda. Ankit is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He’s an expert on the Asia-Pacific region and his work encompasses nuclear strategy, arms control, missile defense, nonproliferation, and emerging technologies. Ankit and Milan discuss the significance of India’s MIRV test and the new “missile age” in the Indo-Pacific. Plus, the two discuss the China-India-Pakistan triangle, the importance of India’s 2019 anti-satellite test, and the future of India’s space policy. Read more
It seems wherever you turn these days, there are stories about India’s status as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Its growth rates remain the envy of both the develo ... Read more
It seems wherever you turn these days, there are stories about India’s status as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Its growth rates remain the envy of both the developed—and the developing—world. But what is really happening under the hood? What are the opportunities for India in a world riven by conflict and technological disruptions? And what challenges might it face as it tries to navigate these choppy waters? To talk about the nuts and bolts of the Indian economy, Milan is joined on this week’s show by the economist Pranjul Bhandari. Pranjul is chief India and Indonesia economist and managing director for global research at HSBC. Whether it’s breaking down the latest GDP print, forecasting India’s inflation dynamics, or dissecting India’s annual budget, Pranjul is one of the sharpest and most prolific observers of the Indian economy. Milan and Pranjul discuss the latest growth figures from India, the stickiness of inflation, and underwhelming consumption growth. Plus, the two discuss the puzzle of India’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and what it will take for the “Make in India” program to succeed. The duo conclude with a discussion about the reforms India must prioritize if it is to achieve sustained rapid growth. Read more
